Oscar picks

Ok people. Mike here. I did this last year, and I'll do this again. Let's hear your Oscar nominations picks. As a guide, I'm using hsx (hollywood stock exchange) to break down the major nominations. For each category, they are broken down into probables, possibles, maybes, and longshots, followed by my picks. I generally do better with picking the nominees until last year. We'll see. Here we go:



BEST PICTURE:

Probables: There Will Be Blood, No Country For Old Men, Atonement, Juno, American Gangster

Possibles: Michael Clayton, Into The Wild, The Diving Bell and The Butterfly

Maybe: Sweeney Todd

Longshots: Charlie Wilson's War, Before The Devil Knows You're Dead, The Kite Runner, 3:10 To Yuma, Hairspray, Once, Zodiac, The Assassination of Jesse James . . ., Knocked Up


My picks: The Diving Bell And The Butterfly (a surprise but the Producer's Guild members will probably get it in), Juno (Consider this the Little Miss Sunshine slot), Michael Clayton (West coast people kept the film from being a flop, they'll get it in here), No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood


BEST DIRECTOR: Probables: The Coen brothers- No Country . . . , Paul Thomas Anderson- There Will Be Blood

Possibles: Julian Schnabel- The Diving Bell and The Butterfly, Joe Wright- Atonement, Ridley Scott- American Gangster, Sean Penn- Into The Wild, Tim Burton- Sweeney Todd, Tony Gilroy- Michael Clayton

Maybe- David Fincher- Zodiac

Longshots- Sidney Lumet- Before The Devil . . ., Jason Reitman- Juno, Ang Lee- Lust Caution, Marc Foster- The Kite Runner, Todd Haynes- I'm Not There, Sarah Polley- Away From Her, Denzel Washington- The Great Debaters, David Cronenberg- Eastern Promises, Ben Affleck- Gone Baby Gone, Judd Apatow- Knocked Up

My picks: Anderson, the Coens, Gilroy, Schnabel, Scott. Not that far at all from the DGA picks, I know.


BEST ACTOR:

Probables: Daniel Day-Lewis- . . . Blood, George Clooney- Michael Clayton, Johnny Depp- Sweeney Todd

Possibles: Denzel Washington- American Gangster, Viggo Mortensen- Eastern Promises, Tom Hanks- Charlie Wilson's War, Emile Hirsch- Into The Wild

Maybes: Ryan Gosling- Lars and The Real Girl, James McAvoy- Atonement, Josh Brolin- No Country . . ., Mathieu Amalric- The Diving Bell . . .

Longshots: Phillip Seymor Hoffman- Before The Devil . . ., Frank Langella- Started Out In The Evening, Tommy Lee Jones- In The Valley Of Elah, Casey Affleck- Gone Baby Gone, Christian Bale- Rescue Dawn, Russell Crowe- 3:10 To Yuma, Kal Penn- The Namesake

My picks: Clooney, Day-Lewis, Depp, McAvoy, Washington. Just don't see Viggo getting the much deserved love.


BEST ACTRESS:

Probables: Julie Christie- Away From Her, Marion Cotillard- La Vie En Rose, Ellen Page- Juno, Keira Knightly- Atonement, Angelina Jolie- A Mighty Heart, Cate Blanchett- Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Possibles: none

Maybes: Helena Bonham Carter- Sweeney Todd, Amy Adams- Enchanted

Longshots: Laura Linney- The Savages, Wei Tang- Lust Caution, Keri Russell- Waitress, Jodie Foster- The Brave One, Nikki Blonsky- Hairspray, Carice Van Houten- Black Book

My picks: Christie, Cotillard, Jolie, Knightly, Page. If this was the people's choice, Adams would be there instead of Angelina, but it's not, so . . .


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Probables: Javier Bardem- No Country . . ., Casey Affleck- The Assassination of Jesse James . . ., Phillip Seymour Hoffman- Charlie Wilson's War, Hal Holbrook- Into The Wild, Tom Wilkinson- Michael Clayton

Possibles: Paul Dano- . . . Blood, Russell Crowe- American Gangster, Tommy Lee Jones- No Country . . .

Maybes: Philip Bosco- The Savages, Max von Sydow- The Diving Bell . . ., Ben Foster- 3:10 To Yuma, Ethan Hawke- Before The Devil . . ., Irrfan Khan- The Namesake

Longshots: Brad Pitt- the Assassination of Jesse James . . ., Robert Downey Jr.- Zodiac, Homayon Ershadi- The Kite Runner, Albert Finney- Before The Devil . . . , John Travolta- Hairspary, Marcus Carl Franklin- I'm Not There

My picks: Bardem, Dano, Hoffman, Holbrook, Wilkinson. I know Affleck has been praised, but I have to wonder if any Academy member sat through all 8 hrs or the Jesse James film. I know I haven't tried to at this point, and if I can't (for some of you, I'm the only one you know who likes Westerns), why would some Academy members with 65 DVDs to go through. My guess is that any member who wasn't jumping for the other 4, and saw Dano stand up acting-wise to Daniel Day, would have to nominate him.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Probables: Amy Ryan- Gone Baby Gone, Cate Blanchett- I'm Not There, Tilda Swinton- Michael Clayton

Possibles: Vanessa Redgrave- Atonement, Catherine Keener- Into The Wild, Kelly MacDonald- No Country . . .

Maybes: Ruby Dee- American Gangster, Saoirse Ronan- Atonement, Jennifer Garner- Juno, Romola Garai- Atonement

Longshots: Emmanuelle Seigner- The Diving Bell . . . , Leslie Mann- Knocked Up, Marisa Tomei- Before The Devil . . ., Michelle Pfeiffer- Hairspray, Kristen Wiig- Knocked Up (KIDDING- No way that internet push to get her nominated will work, no matter how memorable her cameo is)

My picks: Blanchett, Keener, MacDonald, Ryan, Swinton. Honestly, after Cate and Amy, I have no clue. So I'm going to some old favorites, like Tilda and Kelly. But don't be surprised if somehow, the 12 year old from Atonement or Ruby Dee gets up there.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Probables: Juno, Michael Clayton

Probables: American Gangster, Ratatouille, Before The Devil . . .

Possibles: Waitress, The Savages, The Great Debaters, I'm Not There, Once, Knocked Up, In The Valley Of Elah Longshot: Eastern Promises, The Darjeeling Limited

My picks: Before The Devil, Juno, Clayton, The Savages, Ratatouille. I know Knocked Up is WGA nominated, but considering a lot of the best jokes were ad libbed, will we have another Beverly Hills Cop in our hands? And I know Lars is also WGA nominated, but how actually went to see this?


BEST SCREENPLAY ADAPTATION:

Probables: No Country . . ., There Will Be Blood, Atonement, Into The Wild, The Diving Bell . . .

Possible: Zodiac

Maybes: Sweeney Todd, The Kite Runner, Charlie Wilson's War, Gone Baby Gone. 3:10 To Yuma

Longshots: Away From Her, Lust Caution, Peresepolis

My picks: Diving Bell, Into The Wild, No Country, Blood, Zodiac

That's it for now. Give me yours if you got them. Nominations are Tuesday morning, Oct 22.